Ron Paul, Visiting Ames and Cedar Falls this Week, Could Use Iowa Caucuses to Build National Support
Ron Paul polls high in Iowa and low in most of the rest of the country. His campaign hopes to turn that around.
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It has been a roller coaster of an election season.
Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain all shot to the front of the Republican race, one by one. And, one by one, they crashed back down. Now, Newt Gingrich has become Mitt Romney’s strongest challenger.
But there is another candidate, Ron Paul, who has had consistently strong poll numbers in Iowa, despite being largely disregarded by much of the rest of the country. Paul had the support of 18 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers in a Des Moines Register poll released Dec. 3. That put him in second place, behind Gingrich at 25 percent and in front of Romney’s 16 percent.
Nationally, Paul does much worse, landing just 8 percent of Republican voters in a Dec. 1 to Dec. 5 Gallup poll. That still secures him third place, but by a much wider margin -- although the Register Poll may indicate a more accurate view of actual voters; it questioned likely Caucus-goers. The Gallup Poll questioned registered Republicans.
Paul will be speaking at 7 p.m. on Iowa State University campus today and at 7 p.m. at the University of Northern Iowa on Friday.
The question is, could Paul leverage a strong caucus showing to bolster his numbers elsewhere? And, if so, what would that mean for the other candidates?
“He really does attract a unique piece of the Republican party,” said David Redlawsk, a political science professor at Rutgers who used to teach at the University of Iowa. “Whether he’s taking away supporters (from other candidates) or bringing in new ones is not completely clear right now, but I think it’s the latter. Strong Ron Paul supporters might simply stay home if he wasn’t in the race.”
Redlawsk co-authored the book Why Iowa?: Sequential Elections, Reform and U.S. Presidential Nominations, about the role the Iowa caucuses play in the nomination process. He said it’s possible Paul’s campaign could use the media attention of a strong Iowa finish to get people in other states to pay more attention to him.
In general, Redlawsk said, Paul is a candidate who is by-and-large ignored by the main-stream press, where he is perceived as too unlikely to get elected to warrant much coverage. But without press attention, he said, voters don’t learn about Paul, which makes the prophecy self-fulfilling.
Paul’s campaign has also heavily focused its time and money on early voting places such as Iowa and New Hampshire. After the early contests are over, he could take those efforts to the broader electorate, hopefully riding the publicity of strong finishes.
Former Iowa GOP chairman Mike Mahaffey said Paul’s campaign has strong organization and plenty of money, both of which could help him after Iowa. But he wasn’t so sure the libertarian-leaning candidate could garner enough support to go all the way.
“I think Ron Paul has the ability to stay in this for a long period of time,” he said. “Do I think he’s going to be the nominee? I don’t think so.”
This is Paul’s third run for the presidency. He campaigned as a libertarian in 1988 and as a Republican in 2008. He’s never come close to election, but Mahaffey said the message he spreads while campaigning may be just as important as his presidency bid.
“For him, it’s not about personality, it’s about the message. I think to him it is all about the message,” he said.
That message, of personal liberty and small federal government, rings true with supporters from a wide range of interests, Mahaffey said.
Drew Ivers, Paul’s Iowa campaign chairman, echoed Mahaffey’s perspective.
“He’s sincerely and honestly running for nomination within the Republican party,” he said. “A spinoff benefit of that is laying a lot of groundwork for young people to understand our constitutional heritage.”
But Ivers has hope that this time around Paul could do more than spread his message.
“This is the most sporadic set of polling I’ve ever experienced,” he said. “The entire field of Republican candidates has gyrated so much. In the top tier of candidates, Ron Paul has been the most stable. I think that’s a good testimony of his credibility and his message being accepted.”
What do you think will happen to Paul's candidacy after Iowa, and if he is strong in the early caucuses and primaries but doesn't gain the nomination how will that affect the rest of the field? Let us know in the comment section. And, don't forget, Patch will have live coverage before, during and after the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3.
jester13rok
7:57 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
Ron Paul is the only candidate that has been consistent and honest coming out of both republican and democrat. Just look at his voting record the past twenty years. Even though I'm concerned with certain viewpoints, I know where he stands and will not change his positions after he is elected.
kristan
8:02 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
When honesty becomes an enigma in politics and the general fear is that a candidate will do what he says you know our system is messed up.Much like Scott Walker in Wisconsin.He is our best chance to hold the us government accountable as the people of the united states.
Joe Chabot
10:56 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
No kidding, I heard that while they were painful, the financial results of what Walker have done are leading to full recovery. If that is true, it is a great model of success. And yes, it is sad that honesty seems to be a second choice if not even a distant third in this race. Most people have come to distrust honesty in government because it often means they can't have stuff. "We want free college education!" You can't its too expensive. "Waaaaaaahhhhhh!"
sadixon
8:29 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
" nationally Paul dose much worse." What an out right lie. Prove it gowans,and I don't mean with that made up poll. Have fun eating those words pall. See you on election day. And in south Carolina before that. Whatch as all fall to Ron Paul!
DB4RonPaul
8:33 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
The reason Ron Paul has a solid support base is simple. He doesnt flip flop on the issues. He's a true constituionalist who speaks on small government, mind our own business when comes to foreign affairs, a solid understanding of healthcare than any other, and a real economic plan to cut 1trillion in spending. You know where he stands and the American people hungers for that.
Jennifer Oakley
9:00 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
"Nationally, Paul does much worse"
There are an estimated 5 million eligible voters come 2012. This gallup poll surveyed 1200 voters out of this 5 million and called this a "national poll". Additionally this poll majority surveyed were done so by land lines indicating that age probably skewed and was major flaw in this study that was never mentioned.
I find it hard to believe that a survey of 1200 people out of 5 million could speak for the majority as a "national poll". These polls are fake, skewed and full of lies that the banks and their puppets spew to ensure that they remain the dictators of the American people.
Ron Paul 2012!
http://itunesbomb.com/
Ed Howard
9:09 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
All the other candidates plan on piling on 8-10 Trillions more debt over the next decade.
Ron Paul is the only choice once you acknowledge that debt IS the problem.
Americans need to choose what is more important.
"Militarism" and 8-10T more debt - or - Ron Paul.
"The media says he can't win" and 8-10T more debt - or - Ron Paul.
"Federal involvement in education" and 8-10T more debt - or - Ron Paul.
Fill in the blank with the reason your not voting for Ron Paul.
"_________" and 8-10T more debt - or - Ron Paul.
Choose wisely America!
windwardtack
9:21 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
You say Ron Paul polls high in Iowa and low in the rest of the country.... for a candidate national media doesn't push, for whatever reason, the only chance to win is to campaign in states which can get to know them. He is well funded for a GRASSROOTS FUNDED candidate, but can't blanket the national airwaves with ads to put his own message out and fight the stream of national media pushing candidates more in tuned to preserving special interest funding programs.
He can, to some extent, get his message out in Iowa, then New Hampshire. That is why he has to do well in these states, so voters will give him a look, despite marginalization by the national media corporations.
ROGER
9:34 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
Our nation needs DR.RON PAUL ,and after all these moles get whacked off their pedal stools, the Republican Party will have to just suck it up, that they have no better chioce,on my personal opinion, anyone againsts DR.RON PAUL is not just an enemy,but a domestic enemy.Just something to think about.DOMESTIC ENEMY:any person who preaches,practices or writes laws against our CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS.
Jarrett
9:44 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
Okay, now come on guys. You wonder why people think us Paul supporters aren't looked upon well, and then this guy writes an article that is COMPLETELY NEUTRAL, and you attack him. He doesn't say Paul can't get elected. He cites a source, which is considered to be a credible one (one, I might add, that we would all tout if Paul were in first in that poll). C-I-V-I-L-I-T-Y. Win on principle, not with anger. Ron Paul 2012!
Jennifer Oakley
11:46 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
I don't think anyone was attacking the author but more asking for fair and just media presentation with non biased slants
While the source quoted in the article is "considered credible" their data is not. Not sure how you can survey 1200 people out of 5 million and present that as the word of God. Don't you think it would have been fair and a sign of quality writing, if the writer or the article had atleast acknowledge the polls flaws for those who may not devulge deeper than this article if their intent was on having a non biased article?
When CBS debate happened I was upset not only about Dr. Paul but about all the other candidates who didn't recieve any time. As a voter I want to hear all sides of the story (yes even Huntsmans, Bachmanns, Santorum) and not just hear Romney or the Freddiemac doughboys answers. Just me though!
Juan Viche
9:54 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
visit phone.ronpaul2012.com and make a difference today!
Alison Gowans
10:08 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
“He really does attract a unique piece of the Republican party,” said David I Redlawsk, a political science professor at Rutgers who used to teach at the University of Iowa. “Whether he’s taking away supporters (from other candidates) or bringing in new ones is not completely clear right now, but I think it’s the latter. Strong Ron Paul supporters might simply stay home if he wasn’t in the race.”
What do you guys think? Would you stay home if Ron Paul wasn't running?
Joe Chabot
11:01 am on Thursday, December 8, 2011
I'd at least go write him in! :) Since any other choice doesnt matter significantly then its not a wasted vote, but a vote in conscience. Best case Scenario, 4 candidate race. Rep - Dem (really 1 party anyhow), Independant (Trump?? LOL), Liberatarian (Paul or Johnson) I think (underline think) The liberatarians would run away with it.
JHILL
12:01 pm on Thursday, December 8, 2011
I would probably go to write him in as well. I think he is one of the few politicians that realizes that when it really comes down to it, Democrats and Republicans are no different. Both parties are perpetuators of war propaganda and are more concerned about promoting their own power and name rather than running the damn country. Further, neither Republicans nor Democrats know how to work with someone of opposing views, or how to balance a budget. Paul has a record of doing all of the above, while still promoting civil liberties, even to marginalized groups, such as the LGBT population. His desire to abolish the war on drugs also effectively deals with the racism in the judicial system, where African Americans are punished more frequently and more punitively for the same crimes that Caucasians also commit
So yes, until Obama can do the same thing, I will not vote for him, and I wouldn't even consider voting for any of the other Republican candidates.
Deanna Blevins
1:20 pm on Thursday, December 8, 2011
Another Republican here who'd write him in. I've been so sick of the media ignoring Ron Paul. Gingrich, Perry, Romney--YUCK. Finally, more Americans are getting a chance to see Ron Paul. Go Dr. Paul!
B.A. Morelli
2:28 pm on Thursday, December 8, 2011
We ran a Poll a few weeks back asking readers what they thought should happen if Paul didn't get the nomination. A vast majority said he should run as a third-party candidate. http://patch.com/A-nT5F What do you think?
jenny
1:01 pm on Friday, December 9, 2011
If Paul doesn't get the nomination, I think that he should very definitely run as a third party candidate. I'm almost 70 yrs old and had always been a democrat until the last election when I first heard of Ron Paul. His message was honest and true and hasn't changed a bit since then. I contributed many times to the 'money bombs' in 2007/08 and this year and will continue until the end. I re-registered as a Republican to vote for Ron Paul and even went to my first caucus although I've lived in Iowa all of my life. Even though Ron Paul said that he wanted us to give his vote to Chuck Baldwin, I just wrote in Ron Paul at the polls instead.
In August of this year, I cast my vote for Ron Paul at the Straw Poll in Ames, Iowa and I will definitely be at the caucus to cast my vote for him again, no matter what the weather is. If he has to run third party, he will still have my vote. Go Ron Paul 2012!
JHILL
2:45 pm on Thursday, December 8, 2011
Sure, I wouldn't be offended by a third party run, and I'd support him. His chances of winning are still astronomically better when running as a Republican rather than a Libertarian or Independent, but I still don't think my vote would be wasted if I cast it on Paul as a third party candidate. The longer he stays in the race, the better it is for America's politics and future decisions. The public needs to wake up - Wall Street and the Military Industrial Complex operate both parties. Follow the money trail, voters. Paul gets his money from middle class Americans, war veterans, and active duty military. Gingrich and Romney get their money from Wall Street and the 1%, and Obama gets his money from Goldman Sachs and Hollywood.
John Wallman
8:19 pm on Thursday, December 8, 2011
“He really does attract a unique piece of the Republican party,” Part of that unique piece is someone like me. I had been a lifelong republican who is now a declared independent because the republican party has gone so far into big government, war promotion and generally become an international bully. Because of Ron Paul, I wanted to come back to the republican party so that I could vote for him in the primary. I live in a closed state that requires that I register as a republican in order to vote. Unfortunately, the deadline has passed to change parties in my state. For all the independents, disaffected democrats, folks for peace and freedom loving people, please check on your state requirements so that you can vote for Ron Paul in your state primaries!
Jim McClarin
1:16 am on Friday, December 9, 2011
Paul's supporters are famous for campaigning on their own with their own literature, signs, and creative projects ranging from billboards and full-page newspaper ads to
airplanes towing banners and even a huge blimp in his 2008 bid. One current example is a mailing showing up in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada that highlights Paul. It's being sent out as an independent project by his supporters, not by the Paul campaign. These mailings, dubbed the Super-Brochure, have the return address of the supporter that paid for the mailing to one or more precincts. Paul obviously excites his base like no other candidate.
Jackson Baer
1:55 am on Friday, December 9, 2011
Ron Paul's new ads are great and I really think he's going to win Iowa. I read that the Paul campaign has 20,000 hard commits in Iowa and the total turnout is usually around 100,000. He should get around 30% come January 3rd.
RON PAUL 2012
http://www.whatthehellbook.com/the-book/